光華講壇——社會(huì)名流與企業(yè)家論壇第6737期

主題：The Effect of Business Data Analytics on the Issuance and Quality of Management Forecasts(商業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)分析對(duì)管理層預(yù)測(cè)的發(fā)行與質(zhì)量的影響)

主講人：美國(guó)阿肯色大學(xué)沃爾頓商學(xué)院 Vernon Richardson教授

主持人：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué) 李賀教授

時(shí)間：3月19日 10:00-11:30

會(huì)議地點(diǎn)：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)柳林校區(qū)誠(chéng)正樓650

主辦單位：新時(shí)代中國(guó)特色財(cái)務(wù)與會(huì)計(jì)理論創(chuàng)新與方法體系研究團(tuán)隊(duì) 會(huì)計(jì)學(xué)院 科研處

主講人簡(jiǎn)介：

Vernon Richardson教授是美國(guó)阿肯色大學(xué)沃爾頓商學(xué)院的杰出教授，會(huì)計(jì)系主任，研究方向?yàn)樾畔⒓夹g(shù)、大數(shù)據(jù)分析和會(huì)計(jì)的交叉領(lǐng)域，是美國(guó)會(huì)計(jì)信息系統(tǒng)領(lǐng)域最杰出的學(xué)者之一。

他的成果發(fā)表在The Accounting Review、Journal of Accounting and Economics、MIS quarterly、Journal of Operations Management、Journal of Marketing、Journal of operations Management等UTD24期刊，以及Contemporary Accounting Research、Journal of Management Information Systems等FT50期刊。他曾擔(dān)任The Accounting Review主編，現(xiàn)任Accounting Horizons主編。

在教學(xué)方面，Richardson教授出版了《Accounting Information Systems》、《Data Analytics for Accounting》等教材。其中，《會(huì)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)分析》（Data Analytics for Accounting）教材是大數(shù)據(jù)會(huì)計(jì)領(lǐng)域的原創(chuàng)教材，在國(guó)內(nèi)外得到了廣泛應(yīng)用。

內(nèi)容簡(jiǎn)介：

Prior empirical research on the impact of business data analytics (BDA) has focused on its effects on aspects such as new product success (Shirazi et al. 2022), supply chain performance (Al-Khatib, 2022), and organizational performance (Garmaki et al. 2023). While these eventual performance consequences are important, they are mediated and moderated by several factors, as the prior literature acknowledges. This paper focuses on a more direct consequence of BDA on the firm — on the firm’s management earnings forecast. More specifically, we argue that if a firm’s BDA capabilities would enable it to have better information (consistent with organizational information processing theory Chen et al. 2021), it would be reflected in its voluntary information disclosure (consistent with disclosure theory; e.g., Diamond 1985; Trueman 1986; Verrecchia 1990) through both the firm’s issuance of management earnings forecasts and the quality of information in those forecasts. Thus, the paper’s first research question is: How does the quality of a firm’s internal information facilitated by BDA announcement affect the likelihood and quality of the firm’s management earnings forecast?

Disclosure theory suggests that a firm’s voluntary information disclosure reduces information asymmetry and depends on the firm’s internal information (Verrecchia 1983; Li et al. 2012; Kim et al. 2023). Therefore, if a firm has higher quality internal information, it would be both more likely to issue voluntary disclosures, and provide disclosures that reduce information asymmetry with outside stakeholders (including shareholders) to a greater extent. We argue that the BDA announcement serves as a signal of the effect of the announced BDA on the firm’s internal information, and thereby moderate the effect of the BDA announcement on the firm’s management earnings forecasts. Thus, the paper’s second research question is: How do the attributes of the announced BDA effort moderate the effects of the BDA announcement on the likelihood and quality of the firm’s management earnings forecast?

摘要：以往關(guān)于商業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)分析（BDA）影響力的實(shí)證研究主要探討了它對(duì)新產(chǎn)品成功（Shirazi 等人，2022年）、供應(yīng)鏈表現(xiàn)（Al-Khatib，2022年）和組織績(jī)效（Garmaki 等人，2023年）等方面的效果。雖然這些績(jī)效結(jié)果很關(guān)鍵，但據(jù)先前文獻(xiàn)所示，它們受到多個(gè)因素的影響和限制。本篇文章更直接地關(guān)注BDA對(duì)公司的影響，尤其是對(duì)公司管理層盈利預(yù)測(cè)的影響。更確切地說(shuō)，我們提出如果公司的BDA能力能讓它獲取更準(zhǔn)確的信息（這與組織信息處理理論相符，參見(jiàn)Chen等人，2021年），那么這將在其自愿性信息披露中反映出來(lái)（與披露理論相符，比如Diamond 1985年；Trueman 1986年；Verrecchia 1990年），既體現(xiàn)在公司發(fā)布的管理層盈利預(yù)測(cè)，也體現(xiàn)在這些預(yù)測(cè)的信息質(zhì)量上。因此，本文首要探討的問(wèn)題是：BDA公告所提升的公司內(nèi)部信息質(zhì)量，如何影響公司管理層盈利預(yù)測(cè)的可能性及其質(zhì)量？

披露理論指出，公司的自愿信息披露能夠減少信息不對(duì)稱，并且這種披露依賴于公司的內(nèi)部信息（Verrecchia 1983年；Li等人，2012年；Kim等人，2023年）。因此，如果公司擁有更高質(zhì)量的內(nèi)部信息，它不僅更可能進(jìn)行自愿披露，而且還能提供更有效地減少與外部利益相關(guān)者（包括股東）之間信息不對(duì)稱的披露。我們認(rèn)為BDA公告作為一種信號(hào)，表明了BDA對(duì)公司內(nèi)部信息影響的效果，進(jìn)而調(diào)節(jié)BDA公告對(duì)公司管理層盈利預(yù)測(cè)的影響程度。因此，本文的第二個(gè)研究問(wèn)題是：宣布的BDA特性如何調(diào)節(jié)BDA公告對(duì)公司管理層盈利預(yù)測(cè)的可能性及其質(zhì)量的影響？