光華講壇——社會名流與企業家論壇第6615期

主題：通貨膨脹目標區間有助于還是妨礙價格穩定？

主講人：特倫托大學 Roberto Tamborini

主持人：經濟與管理研究院 吳季教授

時間：10月26日 14:00—16:00

舉辦地點：西南財經大學柳林校區格致樓1211

主辦單位：經濟與管理研究院 國際交流與合作處 科研處

主講人簡介：

Roberto Tamborini教授在1991年獲得了歐洲大學學院的經濟學博士學位，目前在特倫托大學經濟與管理系擔任經濟學教授，同時也是歐洲政治經濟學院的研究員和歐洲議會貨幣對話專家委員會的成員。他的主要研究領域包括宏觀經濟理論與政策、貨幣與金融經濟學以及歐洲經濟政策，產出了約90項科研出版物，他的文章發表在Journal of Banking and Finance, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Journal of Common Market Studies,Open Economies Review, Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Metroeconomica, Giornale degli Economisti, Rivista Italiana degli Economisti, Applied Economics, Economics, Economica, Oxford Economic Papers及Journal of Macroeconomics。

Roberto Tamborini obtained his Ph.D. in Economics at the European University Institute, Florence in 1991. His current position is professor of Economics at the Department of Economics and Management of the University of Trento. He is also a fellow of the School of European Political Economy, LUISS 'Guido Carli', Rome, and a member of the Board of Experts of the Monetary Dialogues of the European Parliament. His main research fields are Macroeconomic theories and policies, Monetary and financial economics, and European economic policy. He has produced about 90 publications of monographs, contributions to collective books, and articles in refereed journals: such as Journal of Banking and Finance, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Journal of Common Market Studies, Open Economies Review, Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Metroeconomica, Giornale degli Economisti, Rivista Italiana degli Economisti, Applied Economics, Economics, Economica, Oxford Economic Papers, Journal of Macroeconomics.

內容簡介：

本次講座的研究聚焦于通貨膨脹目標制度的中央銀行，尤其是采用通貨膨脹區間目標的中央銀行，包括最近的美聯儲和歐洲央行。他們的目標是將通貨膨脹率保持在官方目標的范圍內，并在通貨膨脹表現出偏離這一范圍的跡象時進行干預。研究的主要問題在于采用通貨膨脹目標區間（ITZ）是否有助于或妨礙中央銀行實現價格穩定。研究受已有文獻的啟發，展示了通貨膨脹目標區間使中央銀行能夠在干預之前處理更大的沖擊，并在干預時設定更低的利率水平。但如果市場參與者對通貨膨脹目標區間的范圍存在不確定性，這些好處將會銷售。該研究有助于更加深入地理解中央銀行在通貨膨脹控制方面的策略和決策，以及通貨膨脹目標區間對經濟穩定性的影響。

A significant number of central banks that have adopted inflation targeting can also be classified as inflation-zone targeters, with the recent inclusion of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. They aim to keep inflation within a range centered on the official target and intervene only to the extent that inflation shows a tendency to move out of that range. We ask whether the adoption of an inflation target zone (ITZ) would help or hinder the central bank's achievement of price stability. Through a model inspired by previous literature on exchange rate target zones, we show that the ITZ allows the central bank to handle larger shocks before intervening and to set a lower interest rate at the point of intervention. However, these benefits are reversed if market agents are uncertain about the width of the ITZ.